Alberta Real Estate: On the Verge of a Buyer’s Market?

As Canada's real estate landscape changes, Alberta remains at a crossroads. While regions like Toronto and Vancouver have fully transitioned into buyer’s markets, Alberta's major cities, Calgary and Edmonton, continue to hold firm in seller territory. However, the winds of change are blowing, and buyers and sellers alike need to be prepared.

What’s a Seller’s Market?

A seller’s market occurs when the sales-to-new-listing ratio exceeds 60%, signaling high demand and low inventory. In such markets, sellers can expect quick sales, often with multiple offers. A buyer’s market is the opposite, with ratios below 40%, where buyers gain the advantage of more choices and negotiating power.

Edmonton (70%) remains a strong seller’s market, while Calgary (56%) is edging closer to balance, but both are showing signs of cooling. By contrast, Toronto (25%) and Vancouver (30%) have fully transitioned into buyer’s markets, offering a potential preview of what Alberta could experience if inventory continues to rise and demand slows down.

What’s Driving the Trend in Alberta?

1. Strong Job Market: Alberta’s economy, particularly in oil, gas, and tech, has been a stabilizing force. With unemployment at 5.9%, below the national average, steady employment is sustaining demand in urban centers like Calgary and Edmonton.
2. Affordability: Compared to Ontario and British Columbia, Alberta offers relatively affordable housing and a lower cost of living, which continues to attract buyers from other provinces. This is preventing Alberta from fully cooling as quickly as Toronto or Vancouver.
3. Rising Housing Starts: A 7.4% increase in housing starts across Alberta is helping to balance the market. As more new homes hit the market in 2025, competition for buyers will likely intensify, tipping the scales further toward a balanced or buyer’s market.
4. Interest Rates: While rising interest rates have hit all Canadian markets, Alberta’s affordability has made it less vulnerable to the rapid cooling seen in cities like Toronto, where buyers are more rate-sensitive due to higher prices. Now that rates have started to come down, affordability may yet improve.

Alberta’s Market Outlook

While Edmonton and Calgary remain seller’s markets, they’re nearing a tipping point. Time on market is increasing, and buyers are starting to see more inventory. Smaller cities and rural areas in Alberta are already moving toward balanced conditions, signaling that broader changes are on the horizon.

Conclusion: Prepare for Change

Alberta’s market is still competitive, but as 2025 approaches, some expect to see more balance, especially in rural and suburban areas. Buyers should start exploring now, while sellers in Edmonton and Calgary might want to act fast before the market cools further.

Key Takeaways:

• Edmonton (70%) is still a seller’s market, but cooling trends are emerging.
• Calgary (56%) is just on the cusp and also showing a cooling trend.
• Job market and affordability are helping sustain demand, but rising housing starts and interest rates are shifting the balance.
• Smaller Alberta regions are already closer to a balanced market.

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